I never make predictions and I never will

Last updated : 11 July 2008 By Simon Head

There's nothing wrong with a bit of optimism when it comes to sport, but if you're involved with running a team or club and you start throwing wild predictions around, you're either supremely confident, or incredibly foolish, as if you fail, you leave yourself in great danger of looking a complete arse.

Sir Alf Ramsey got lucky. He boldly predicted that England would win the World Cup in 1966, and his team spared him a major embarrassment by actually going out there and doing it.

Three years later, across the pond in America, Joe Namath, the brash, cocky quarterback from the New York Jets, guaranteed that his team would defeat the huge favourites, the Baltimore Colts, in Super Bowl III, despite the opinion of just about every sports writer and bookmaker in the United States. But with the whole nation seemingly convinced Baltimore would steamroller Namath's Jets, "Broadway Joe" produced a man of the match (or MVP as they call it in the States) performance, as New York stunned the Colts, and the entire country, to create one of the biggest shocks in American sporting history.

But for every successful prediction, there are countless examples of players, coaches and chairman whose predictions have proved to be utter tosh. For example, he may be a legend of television commentating, but Murray Walker is far more famous for his on-air gaffes than he is for his superb commentary.

Possibly the best footballing example is Scotland's manager in 1978, Ally MacLeod. The Scottish supremo boldly predicted that his side would return from that year's World Cup in Argentina with "at least a medal". As if that wasn't enough, when a journalist at the airport asked him what he would do if Scotland won the World Cup, MacLeod's answer was simply, "Retain it."

But despite having a hugely talented squad, "Ally's Army" failed to shine in Argentina, losing to Peru, then drawing with Iran in their opening two group games. A 3-2 win over Holland wasn't enough for MacLeod, and Scotland were eliminated at the group stages of the tournament.

But dodgy predictions aren't reserved for the higher echelons of sport. Indeed, Gillingham have experienced a couple of dodgy predictions themselves.

Think back to Wembley 1999. As most of us were packed into the old stadium, celebrating a 2-0 lead against Manchester City, Capital Gold's football commentator Jonathan Pearce was screaming at the top of his lungs that "Gillingham are up!" It was a similar story on Sky Sports, as Alan Brazil exclaimed, "It's goodbye Division Two, hello Division One!"

I don't need to tell you what happened next.

The Gills chairman Paul Scally hasn't been shy of the odd bold statement himself. On more than one occasion his comments have rubbed up opposition fans the wrong way, but on two notable occasions, his prediction skills proved to be somewhat dodgy, too.

In the aftermath of the Gills' last-day relegation escape at the Britannia Stadium, Scally assured fans that this will never happen again. I suppose he was proved right in some ways, as rather than staying up on the last day of the season, the Gills were cruelly relegated in the last five minutes of the final day.

Move on a couple of years, and Scally's enthusiasm in pre-season seemed to have no bounds. Having provided manager Ronnie Jepson with the means to bring in a host of new signings, Scally boldly claimed the Gills would get promoted, and even splashed the phrase "Target Championship" across the front page of the season ticket brochure.

Sadly for him and for us, Scally's faith and enthusiasm proved to be misplaced as Jepson's side made a shocking start to the season, resulting in the former Burnley striker leaving the club before Christmas. With the club struggling at the wrong end of the table, Mark Stimson was appointed, kick-starting the Scally hyperbole once again. "I still believe we'll get promoted," he claimed. By then, few fans agreed, and after a turgid season of upheaval, player unrest and schoolboy defending, the Gills were relegated to League Two.

So, considering how successful our "promotion" season was last year, you'd think the club would keep its powder dry on the predictions front, but you'd think wrong.

"I think we'll do well. We'll come out of this division straight away," trumpeted the club's new CEO Mark Jones today on Teamtalk. The enthusiasm and anticipation is to be commended, but considering what happened last season, that statement will doubtless make a few Gills fans wince. We all WANT promotion, and I think most fans would happily take a top seven finish right now if offered, but seeing statements like that always makes me uneasy.

I also feel it puts a lot of unnecessary pressure on manager Mark Stimson, who has still to win over a number of the club's fans after a disappointing campaign last season. A cynic might suggest that his statement is an attempt to stimulate more season ticket sales, but I'd prefer to think it's just pre-season bullishness from a new CEO.

But, casting the negative thoughts to one side, it does tell us that we're not looking to simply consolidate, which is good. We're looking to bounce straight back up, and that should encourage the fans, who will be looking for exactly the same thing.

I'm absolutely delighted that the club's taking a positive, bullish approach to the new campaign, and am equally pleased to see that promotion IS our target for the coming season. But there's a big difference between aiming for promotion and actually achieving it, so let's just hope that, as far as predictions are concerned, Jones is more of a Joe Namath than an Ally MacLeod. Or a Paul Scally.