Headley: Bet smart, change your thinking

More than half you say? Yes, the option of the draw has knackered many a bet, and knackers thousands of accumulators every week, earning bookmakers across the globe a veritable sackful of extra cash.

The problem lies in the mindset of punters. They think too much about the game itself and not about the bet.

Mug punters (i.e. the vast majority) view a football match as a two horse race - after all there are only two teams taking part. And it's this mindset that loses them money on a regular basis, because it's NOT a two horse race at all. In fact it's a THREE horse race. As well as the two teams, there's also the possibility of the match finishing in a draw. I know I'm stating the obvious, but the simple fact that there are three possible outcomes is so often left out of a mug punter's thinking when they go to place their bets on a football match.

As well as setting the odds, the bookies have a 2/1 advantage over the punter, in that there are always two chances for the punter to lose, as opposed to the one chance they have to win - and the most likely chance to win is always the one at the lowest price. Not really much to attract the punter, you'd think - but people still bet under those conditions. Quite simply they're mad!

So, how do we swing things back in our favour? Well, we can avoid standard match bets for a start. They're known in the industry as Win/Draw/Win bets, as they have three possible outcomes - home win, draw or away win. Instead of betting on these markets, which are the standard ones you see on betting shop coupons and betting websites the world over, it's worth looking at one of the lesser known markets - the Asian Handicaps.

You'll have to bear with me here, as Asian Handicaps are harder to explain as they are to understand. Once you've grasped the concept, it's clear to see how they offer punters more flexibility, and more regular returns, than conventional Win/Draw/Win betting. The main benefit is the fact that the bookies remove the draw from the equation, meaning that this market IS a two-horse race, thanks to the use of the handicap.

If we take a look at a match, say Crewe v Gillingham, the standard Win/Draw/Win market might look a bit like this:

Crewe are the favourites to win the match, and the odds reflect this. But in an Asian Handicap match the market might look something like this:

The numbers in brackets refer to the handicap applied to that team by the bookie, so in this case Gillingham have a one-goal head-start, while Crewe have a one-goal handicap. For the purposes of this market, the match starts with the Gills already 1-0 up! If that happened in real life, we'd win games we should have drawn, and drawn some games we would have lost. In short, our chances of success are that much higher.

By applying a handicap, the bookies have levelled the playing field by giving the weaker side in the match (in this case the Gills), a head start - and as a result, the odds have been evened out too. So even though the price on a Gillingham win is a lot smaller, in fact you have a far better chance of winning as they start the match one goal up. In this example, if you back Gillingham (+1) and the match itself finishes in a draw, then you'll win, thanks to the handicap. The match may finish 1-1, but on the handicap the result is 1-2 to the Gills.

Another key aspect of this is a tie on the handicap itself. Sometimes the match can finish in a tie after the handicap has been applied. This is possible whenever the handicap is in full, whole numbers.

In the example above, if Crewe beat Gillingham by one goal, then the handicap result would be a tie. But unlike standard match bets, you wouldn't lose your money. Instead, because the handicap was a tie and there wasn't an option to bet the draw, neither you nor the bookie has won, and the bet is classed as void and you would have your stake money returned.

This is a massive benefit to punters, and can also make a huge difference when using Asian Handicaps in accumulators. In a standard acca, if you got a match wrong, your acca would be dead, but if one of your acca matches was an Asian Handicap match that finished as a tie after applying the handicap, that match would simply be voided and removed from the acca - and that proportion of the stake would be returned and the acca would continue without that selection present. In short, you've got a bit of insurance against your acca falling down.

However, sometimes Asian Handicaps aren't in whole numbers, for instance:

When you get a situation with a half-goal handicap (0.5 or 1.5 goals), the draw scenario I mentioned above would not happen, as there will always be a positive result for one of the two teams, regardless of the score. That's simply because you can't score half a goal! In this example, Chelsea simply have to win the match for you to win your bet if you back the Blues, whereas backing Liverpool in this case would mean your bet would be a winner if Liverpool won OR drew.

The job of the odds-compilers is more difficult as they not only have to decide who will win, but by how many goals they will win, in order to set up a handicap. This means there's much more room for bookmaker error, and careful selection of Asian Handicap matches can see you make a steady and regular return on your bets.

Here's an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of a well-chosen Asian Handicap bet. Imagine when Chelsea take on Bolton at the Reebok. All the experts will say that Bolton will make it difficult for the Blues, but the vast majority of pundits would still pick Chelsea to win.

Let's look at the stats:

* Bolton haven't conceded at home yet
* Bolton haven't lost at home yet
* Chelsea are far from prolific in the goalscoring stakes, winning the majority of their games by a single goal, sometimes two goals.

The standard Win/Draw/Win match odds are:

What do you bet?

Chelsea are good, but we know Bolton at the Reebok are tough to beat. Do you be brave and back Bolton? Or do you stick with the favourite and back Chelsea? Or is the draw (at the biggest price of the three) the sensible pick? It's a toughie, and one that will divide opinion among punters, meaning bookies will make money regardless.

But imagine backing Bolton:

* If Bolton win the match, you win
* If Bolton draw the match , you lose
* If Chelsea win by one goal, you lose
* If Chelsea win by more than one goal, you lose

Me? I wouldn't bet the match in that situation. It's way too risky.

But the Asian Handicap says:

Now this is much more appealing. The odds are levelled out, so even money on Bolton may appear stingy compared to the 2/1 you'd get on a standard Win/Draw/Win bet, but in reality it's far from it.

Imagine you back Bolton in this case:

* If Bolton win the match, you win
* If Bolton draw the match, you win
* If Chelsea win by one goal, you get your stake back
* If Chelsea win by more than one goal, you lose

All of a sudden it starts to make a lot of sense. The odds may be smaller when you're backing the underdog on Asian Handicaps, but the chances of a return are much higher.

Asian Handicaps put people off because of the terminology and the fact that they appear very complicated, but in reality they're not. Normally you bet on a match which starts at 0-0. In an Asian Handicap the match simply starts with a score already on the board. All you have to do is decide if the favourite is good enough to still beat the underdog, despite the fact they are already behind. If the handicap finishes in a tie, you get your money back. That's pretty much it.

When I bet on football matches, I check the Asian Handicap markets for two things:

1. Matches where the favourite is under-handicapped
The evening up of the match means that the favourites are available to win at a larger price than they would normally be priced up as, due to the fact that they are starting the match with a handicap against their score. However, if the handicap is not large enough (look for -0.5 in particular) for a team that look very strong to win, then that team is worth backing at the improved odds. If you think they will win anyway, bet whichever market offers the better odds. a handicap of -0.5 is no different to betting a match in the standard market, because a draw has the same effect on your bet's result. However, the prices are often still better, so check the odds and take advantage.

2. Tricky matches with whole number handicaps
I always look for Asian Handicap games with WHOLE NUMBER HANDICAPS, as they offer you the potential safety buffer of the handicap draw if you're backing the underdog. Teams who are notoriously difficult to beat, like Blackburn, Bolton and Everton are worth consideration when given a handicap of (+1), especially if they're at home. It often happens against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man Utd. Bolton in particular tend to do well against the top sides, so looking at their Asian Handicap prices and head-starts against the big four is certainly worth consideration. This applies down all the divisions. Identify the trends, and stack them up against the handicap prices - I guarantee you'll find at least one or two matches where the handicappers have left the door open.

If you have the odd punt, why not give it a try? If you can identify the right matches and bet smart, you'll find less money going to the bookies and more going into your account.